Bitcoin plunged below $100,000 on November 4, 2025, at 11:54 AM UTC, trading at $101,146 — its lowest level since June — in a brutal 18% drop from its October peak of $126,210. The crash wasn’t just a crypto glitch; it was a market earthquake triggered by the Jerome Powell’s unyielding Federal Reserve stance, a $500 billion rout in global chip stocks, and $1 billion in leveraged crypto liquidations. For the first time since early 2025, Bitcoin fell below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, exposing a harsh truth: it’s no longer the digital gold investors hoped for. It’s behaving like a high-beta tech stock — and when the Nasdaq Composite Index tumbles, Bitcoin goes with it.
Why This Crash Feels Different
The collapse wasn’t sudden. It was the culmination of a month-long unraveling. By mid-November, market pricing showed less than a 40% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December — a dramatic shift from the dovish optimism that had pushed Bitcoin to $126,210 just weeks earlier. Meanwhile, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and NVIDIA Corporation earnings warnings sent shockwaves through tech-heavy portfolios. Crypto, which had ridden the wave of tech speculation, now found itself caught in the downdraft.Amberdata’s analysis called it a “leveraged bet on risk-on markets” — not a hedge. The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq hit 0.44, its highest in over a year. That’s not coincidence. It’s structure. When tech stocks sell off, leveraged crypto traders get squeezed. And when they get squeezed, the whole system trembles.
The Institutional Divide
While retail traders bailed, giants saw opportunity. BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity Investments quietly added to positions, betting on Bitcoin’s 21 million coin cap as a long-term anchor. But ETF flows told a different story. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows accelerate, with $2.3 billion withdrawn in the past 30 days alone — the largest sustained outflow since early 2024.“They’re not selling Bitcoin,” said one portfolio manager at a mid-sized asset firm in Boston. “They’re selling leverage. And that’s a red flag.”
Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase & Co. flagged $95,000 as the next major support level, with the $93,400 ascending trendline — established in December 2023 — now acting as a “make-or-break” zone. If Bitcoin breaks below that line, the next targets are $88,000 and then $82,000. Reclaiming $110,000? That’s a 10.8% rally away. And right now, momentum is the enemy.
Who’s Winning and Who’s Losing
The human cost is real. According to Coinglass, $1.3 billion in unrealized losses were wiped from leveraged long positions in a single day. Another $300 million in Ethereum futures are at risk if the broader crypto market drops another 15%. Traders who doubled down on margin during the October rally are now facing margin calls they can’t meet.And the regulators are watching. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly reviewing whether Bitcoin should be classified as a speculative commodity rather than a store of value — a move that could trigger stricter capital requirements for institutional holders.
Geographically, adoption is still growing. India’s $30 billion crypto market and the U.S.’s $1.2 trillion digital asset ecosystem show resilience. But these are long-term trends. In the short term, global risk-off sentiment is overpowering them.
What Comes Next? The December Inflection Point
All roads lead to December 17–18, 2025 — the Federal Open Market Committee meetingWashington, D.C.. Jerome Powell will speak. His words will matter more than any chart.Three things will determine Bitcoin’s fate:
- Whether Powell signals a shift toward rate cuts — even a hint of dovishness could spark a 20% rebound.
- Whether U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs see five consecutive days of inflows over $500 million daily — a sign institutions are returning.
- Whether the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index stabilizes above 4,200 — confirming tech’s bottom is in.
Conservative analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. still target $120,000 by year-end — but only if those conditions align. More aggressive firms like Standard Chartered PLC see $150,000–$200,000 if central banks pivot sharply. But right now, the odds are against them.
Historical Context: This Isn’t the First Time
Bitcoin has breached $100,000 twice in 2025 — on June 12 and September 3. Both times, it bounced back within 72 hours. But this time is different. On-chain data from Glassnode shows weaker support at key levels. Wallet accumulation has slowed. Exchange reserves are rising. And the velocity of the drop — 18% in 30 days — is faster than the 15% correction in Q3, which took 42 days. The market is more sensitive. More fragile.Bitcoin’s identity crisis is now public. It’s not a hedge against inflation. Not a store of value. Not even a decentralized currency. Right now, it’s a leveraged proxy for tech optimism — and when that optimism fades, so does the price.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bitcoin fall so hard when the Fed didn’t even raise rates?
It wasn’t about rate hikes — it was about the *lack* of expected cuts. Markets had priced in a December rate cut based on earlier Fed hints. When Jerome Powell signaled no relief was coming, traders dumped risk assets. Bitcoin, with its 0.44 correlation to the Nasdaq, got crushed alongside tech stocks. The drop was less about policy and more about broken expectations.
Is Bitcoin still a good long-term investment?
For long-term holders, yes — if you believe in scarcity. BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity Investments are buying because Bitcoin’s 21 million cap is immutable. But short-term volatility is now tied to macro trends, not crypto fundamentals. Investors need to separate their time horizon: long-term believers can accumulate; short-term traders should tread carefully.
What’s the significance of the $93,400 support level?
That’s the ascending trendline Bitcoin has respected since December 27, 2023. It’s acted as a floor during every correction since then. If Bitcoin closes below $93,400 for more than 48 hours, it signals a structural breakdown — not just a pullback. Analysts at Amberdata call it the “last line of defense.” A breach could trigger automated selling, pushing prices toward $88,000 or lower.
Could Bitcoin recover by year-end?
It’s possible — but only if three things happen: the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts, Bitcoin ETFs see $500 million+ in daily inflows for five straight days, and semiconductor stocks stabilize. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. thinks $120,000 is achievable under those conditions. Without them, a bear market is likely.
Why is the semiconductor sector so tied to Bitcoin?
Because the same investors who bet on AI chips also bet on crypto. NVIDIA and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited are core holdings in tech ETFs — and many of those same funds hold Bitcoin as a speculative tech play. When chip stocks fall, those funds rebalance. That’s why Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq spiked. It’s not about mining or tech infrastructure — it’s about investor behavior.
Should I be worried about regulatory crackdowns?
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is already scrutinizing Bitcoin’s classification. If it’s labeled a speculative commodity, institutional investors may face higher capital reserves, reducing demand. That’s not a ban — but it’s a friction point. Watch for SEC filings on ETFs in December. Any hint of reclassification could add downward pressure.